VoterBase.net
2024 U.S. Popular Vote Projection
Donald J. Trump (R)
48.4%
Kamala Harris (D)
48.4%
Projection as of November 4, 2024
| Date | Trump (R) | Harris (D) | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 48.4% | Even |
| November 3, 2024 | 48.5% | 48.3% | +0.2% Trump |
| November 2, 2024 | 48.8% | 48.0% | +0.8% Trump |
| November 1, 2024 | 48.7% | 48.1% | +0.6% Trump |
| October 31, 2024 | 48.4% | 48.4% | Even |
| October 30, 2024 | 48.3% | 48.5% | +0.2% Harris |
| October 29, 2024 | 48.3% | 48.5% | +0.2% Harris |
| October 28, 2024 | 48.1% | 48.6% | +0.5% Harris |
| October 27, 2024 | 48.1% | 48.7% | +0.6% Harris |
| October 26, 2024 | 48.1% | 48.6% | +0.5% Harris |
| October 25, 2024 | 48.2% | 48.6% | +0.4% Harris |
| October 24, 2024 | 48.2% | 48.4% | +0.2% Harris |
| October 23, 2024 | 48.3% | 48.2% | +0.1% Trump |
| October 22, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.5% | +1.4% Trump |
| October 21, 2024 | 48.8% | 47.7% | +1.1% Trump |
About VoterBase.net
Data-Driven Projections
This polling average is based on spreadsheets used internally for some GOP campaigns and organizations in the 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections with a high degree of accuracy. It is now being revived and made public for the 2024 election. This site will be expanded considerably before the election with historical data and expanded election projections (including the electoral college). Stay tuned.
Track Records
Pollster accuracy in the 2020 and 2016 elections are considered. Extra weight is given to the 2020 election.
Time Decay
Polls "decay" over time and are gradually eased out of the polling average. Fresher polls have more impact.
Sample Size
Sample size is calculated into the average as well to add to the data snapshot.
Third Party Share
A baseline assumption is made of a third-party vote of around 3.5% (halfway between the vote in 2020 and 2016).